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Soybeans: excellent prospects for export in 2023 

      Soybean production, until 1894, was restricted to China and even though it was a food already known and consumed by Western civilization for years, was introduced to Europe in the late 15th century. Thus, in the mid-twentieth century, derivatives such as the oil and protein content of this grain became products of interest to world industries. 

The development of soy in Brazil


      In Brazil, in 1966, production became a necessity as agriculture and livestock were developed. Even so, the commercialization of this product only expanded in 1970, in which an advantage over other producing countries, such as American producers, arises. In this way, investments in this grain grew in Brazil, becoming a food driven by technological innovations, such as Tecnobroto, developed by Embrapa to produce soybean sprouts, in an automated way and without chemical products.


Rise in grain production in 2023


      Being a product of high demand in Brazil, the estimated export of soybeans, meal and soybean oil to the year 2023 was estimated at a record US$ 67.77 billion (R$ 342.56), thus, it has an increase of 11% compared to the total closing of 2022, according to surveys by Abiove (Brazilian Association of Oil Industries Vegetables). 


Soybean price and exports for January


      With record productive potential in 2023, soybean production largely depends on the weather, such as rainfall for grain cultivation. Thus, with regular rains, as currently seen, January is one of the most important months for the harvest, thus offering results of the summer harvest and the development of crops. In this way, the price of soybeans in Brazil can be influenced by the levels of commercialization, which, according to analysts, remain historically low.

In Brazil, quotations present some variations according to the movements of the CBOT and the dollar, in which the post-presidential elections obtained slight increases. Even so, the price of soybeans should remain above R$ 150/sc, with Brazil being a country with a high supply estimate, as it leads the ranking of exporters of this commodity. 


Positive forecast for soybean investment in 2023


      With the high production demand for the year 2023, soybean exports should total 93 million tons, being above 77.2 million in 2022. Total soybean supply is expected to increase 19%, totaling 157 million tons, bran production rises 2%, with a total of 38.43 million and soybean oil is expected to increase 3 %, totaling 10.15 million tons. 

Therefore, forecasts for investment and exports for January and so on in 2023 are positive, mainly with the reduction in the oilseed crop in the United States, which impacted exports in the country and has been enabling expansion in the Brazilian market with a strong appreciation of soy . Contact, it is always necessary to develop negotiation strategies for good returns, in addition, with the new government in Brazil, projects and announcements must be analyzed in light of this topic that may directly affect values and investments.

By: Ana Flora Godoi on 12/16/2022

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