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​The Russian War against Ukraine and its impacts on Brazilian exports

     The global economy had been showing a recovery trend in the first months of 2022 after the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the explosion of Russia's war against Ukraine already presents new negative signs for countries. This is because international conflicts generate a state of instability in the international scenario and, therefore, their impacts on the Brazilian economy must be analyzed.  

Increase in commodity prices as an economic sanction

     In this sense, one of the first reactions to the war and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia was the rise in the price of commodities, which has already increased by 9.5% since February, according to the Central Bank of Brazil. the Russian and Ukrainian relevance in the supply of these assets, especially wheat, corn, oil, natural gas, metals and fertilizers. In the medium term, despite the rise in international transport costs and the disruption in input supply chains, this rise in commodities and the consequent appreciation of the real benefit agricultural producers.

Impacts on Brazil's domestic economy

      Domestically in Brazil, this pressure on commodity prices directly affects consumer inflation, especially in fuel, considering the rise in oil prices, which increased by 38%. In addition, the war causes an increase in the price of manufactured products imported by Brazil, which, despite being mitigated by the recent appreciation of the national currency, also contributes to the forecast in the Central Bank of Brazil's March Inflation Report of peak inflation in 10.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and its fall to 7.1% at the end of the year.  

Delicate status for export in the current scenario

      In this way, the international scenario proves to be complex and uncertain, and may change with the continuation of the war. Thus, demanding an in-depth study of the risks and benefits for those seeking to export during this delicate period.

By: Ana Beatriz Nogueira Teodoro on 03/30/2022


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