Argentine elections and their possible consequences for foreign relations
Contextualization
Even though Argentina is experiencing a serious economic crisis, it still remains one of Brazil's main trading partners, behind only China and the United States. And, with the existence of an Argentine election as polarized as the 2022 Brazilian elections, relations between Brazil and Argentina may undergo changes, as well as the future of relations with China and Latin American countries.
With the second round of elections in Argentina approaching, November 19th, with Javier Milei as protagonists, favorite in the polls who gained fame around the world due to his proposals for resolving the country's economic crisis, seen by many as radical and, on the other hand, Sergio Massa, economy minister linked to the Peronist movement and who has political and economic ideas more centered on the center-left.
Future with Milei in power
The candidate considered an anarcho-capitalist has already made allegations that if he becomes president he would withdraw from Mercosur, which could cause an even greater delay in the trade agreement that the economic bloc has been trying to reach with the European Union since 1999. Another factor that could Concerning Brazil-Argentina relations are the ideological differences between Milei and President Lula, even more accentuated when the Argentine claims that Lula is influencing the Argentine elections. This relationship could affect Argentina's entry into the BRICS. The Argentine candidate also stated that he would cut ties with China and strengthen trade with the United States, but this would be unfeasible for the country, given that China is its second largest trading partner. All of this is due to differences in ideological thoughts.
Future with Massa in power
As for the candidate who has already held the position of economy minister within the Argentine government, he promises that in his government there would be a possible increase in trade flow with Brazil, in addition to strengthening Mercosur along with the support of finalizing the agreement between the bloc and the European Union. In case of victory, bilateral relations between the two countries would be facilitated and focused on Mercosur and with Argentine monetary stability, it could facilitate the Brazilian automotive industry. However, there would still be concerns because Massa belongs to the political group that is associated with the current economic situation in the country and has a supposed proximity to the United States, which could affect Argentina's membership within the BRICS in the future.
By Gabriel Zulzke Duarte on 07/11/2023
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